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Over that time, the non-farm payrolls survey showed that the US economy gained 640,000 jobs. In addition to believing jobs data is distorted, Rosenberg has said in recent months that stock prices and valuations are disconnected from the macroeconomic picture. The chart below shows the AI boom — represented by the yellow line — with AI stocks climbing several hundred percent since 2022. Rosenberg ResearchDownturn or no downturnRosenberg has been notoriously bearish over the last couple of years, repeatedly warning of a recession. Pantheon MacroeconomicsAs Rosenberg points out, the longer the Fed keeps rates elevated, the higher the risk of a recession becomes.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's Organizations: Labor Statistics, Business, Rosenberg Research, BLS, Dynamics, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Bloomberg, Treasury
The fall of Gucci was inevitable
  + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Madeline Berg | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +13 min
"We got used to hearing about double-digit growth at Gucci," Fflur Roberts, the head of luxury goods at Euromonitor, told Business Insider. "I think of what a fashion editor is wearing — it's not Gucci," Lindsey Solomon, a fashion publicist, told BI. After taking the top spot on the Lyst Index of fashion's hottest brands in 2022, Gucci dropped to number 11 last quarter. "We still believe the Gucci brand's current growth rate, which is 10 times higher than that of the industry, represents a risk going forward," Morningstar's Sokolova wrote in a 2017 note. Gucci relied heavily on China for its growth, but stores — perhaps including this one in China's Hainan Province — have struggled recently.
Persons: Alessandro Michele's, loafers, Gigi Hadid, Sienna Miller, Steve Madden, ASOS, Sally Singer, Michele, Fflur Roberts, Alessandro Michele, Harry Styles, Billie Eilish, Jared Leto, Kevin Mazur, Bauer, Griffin, Jeff Kravitz, Gucci, Sabato De Sarno, Lindsey Solomon, De Sarno, François, Henri Pinault, China —, Jelena Sokolova, Solomon, Daniele Venturelli, Michele —, Sokolova, It's, Thomas Chauvet, Morningstar's Sokolova, Michele's Gucci, wasn't, Jeremy Moeller, Chauvet, Roberts, Chanel, Gucci's, Gucci hadn't, Hermès, Birkin, Louis Vuitton's Neverfull, Pinault, Louis, Euromonitor's Roberts Organizations: Creative, Gucci, The Recording Academy, Axelle, Morningstar, BI, Citi, Disney, Getty, Revenue, China News Service, Bain, Louis Vuitton Locations: Euromonitor, China, The Asia, Pacific, China's Hainan Province, Asia
In a letter to staff, McCarthy said the company needed to implement layoffs because it wouldn't be able to generate sustainable free cash flow with its current cost structure. "Achieving positive [free cash flow] makes Peloton a more attractive borrower, which is important as the company turns its attention to the necessary task of successfully refinancing its debt," McCarthy said in the memo. McCarthy had also expected Peloton to reach positive free cash flow by June — a goal the company said it reached early during its third quarter. In a letter to shareholders, Peloton said it generated $8.6 million in free cash flow but it's unclear how sustainable that number is. The company didn't provide specific guidance on what investors can expect with free cash flow in the quarters ahead but said it does expect to "deliver modest positive free cash flow" in its current quarter.
Persons: Barry McCarthy, McCarthy, Karen Boone, Chris Bruzzo, Jay Hoag, It's, John Foley, hasn't, Goldman Sachs, Boone, Barry, Bruzzo, , hadn't, Creditsafe, it's, Foley Organizations: Interactive, Allen & Company Sun Valley Conference, Spotify, Netflix, JPMorgan, LSEG, outperformance, CNBC Locations: Sun Valley , Idaho, lockstep
What Makes a Society More Resilient? Frequent Hardship.
  + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Carl Zimmer | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
Traditionally, historians have studied these downturns qualitatively, by diving into the twists and turns of individual societies. In a study published Wednesday, these methods allowed Dr. Riris and his colleagues to answer a profound question: Why are some societies more resilient than others? The study, published in the journal Nature, compared 16 societies scattered across the world, in places like the Yukon and the Australian outback. The more often a society went through them, the more resilient it eventually became. “Over time, you will suffer less, essentially,” said Dr. Riris, an archaeologist at Bournemouth University in England.
Persons: Philip Riris, Riris, Organizations: Bournemouth University Locations: Yukon, England
Activist investor Ancora received a powerful endorsement in its efforts to secure a board change and to oust Norfolk Southern CEO Alan Shaw on Monday, when proxy advisor Glass Lewis recommended the railroad's shareholders vote for 6 of Ancora's board nominees. "We believe Ancora has presented a compelling case for supporting a substantial overhaul of the Company's current leadership," Glass Lewis said in its report. Furthermore, Glass Lewis said Barber, Ancora's pick for CEO, and Jamie Boychuk, the activist's pick for COO, "have compelling credentials and track records." Ancora also seeks to install former CSX executive Boychuk as Barber's chief operating officer. Their support, coupled with Glass Lewis' endorsement, gives the activist powerful ammunition as it seeks to convince shareholders.
Persons: Ancora, Alan Shaw, Glass Lewis, Betsy Akins, Jim Barber, William Clyburn, Sameh Fahmy, Gilbert Lamphere, Allison Landry, Shaw, Amy Miles, Barber, Ancora's, Jamie Boychuk, Boychuk, John Orr Organizations: Norfolk Southern, Teamster, UPS, CNBC, CSX, Canadian National, CN, NSC, Norfolk Locations: Norfolk Southern, East Palestine , Ohio, Norfolk
Read previewLooking at the headline numbers, the US labor market is booming. OVOM Research/Bullandbearprofits.comWolfenbarger's views in contextOther market observers have started to warn of a weakening labor market in recent months. Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, shared several indicators in a client note earlier this month warning of a job market slowdown ahead. Pantheon MacroeconomicsBut whether the labor market actually weakens materially remains to be seen. AdvertisementIf Wolfenbarger is right and the labor market falls apart in short order, it could catch an exceptionally bullish market off guard.
Persons: , Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, Louis, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson, There's Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Business, Labor Statistics, Fed, Conference, Treasury, OVOM, Pantheon, National Federation of Independent
Finally, consumers are dipping into savings to fund those purchases, creating a precarious scenario, if not now then down the road. With unemployment under 4%, it shouldn't be that surprising that prices aren't" going down, said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities. So you might have a sticky inflation scenario." "If inflation remains higher, the Fed will be faced with the difficult choice of pushing the economy into a recession, abandoning its soft-landing scenario, or tolerating inflation higher than 2%," Sanders said. "To us, accepting higher inflation is the more prudent option."
Persons: Justin Sullivan, Joseph LaVorgna, LaVorgna, Donald Trump, Biden, Mike Sanders, Sanders Organizations: Getty, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Nikko Securities, National Economic Council, Madison Investments Locations: San Rafael , California, U.S
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Since then, private-equity firms have poured $54.6 billion into sports, according to PitchBook data. And the field of potential investors is growing with Goldman Sachs helping rich clients invest in teams, which can drive up prices. AdvertisementLeagues also restrict PE investments, with some caps on the number of teams a firm can own stakes in or the ownership share a fund can hold. Scroll down to read about the private equity firms, listed alphabetically, that have been making the biggest moves in sports in recent years.
Persons: , Josh Harris, Rob Walton, Carlyle, Ben, Blackstone, Goldman Sachs, Harris, Blackstone Group's David Blitzer, Lauren Leichtman, Arthur Levine, Sportico, RedBird, Gerry Cardinale, There's Organizations: Service, MLB, NBA, Business, Washington, Denver Broncos, Amazon, Sports, Ben Fund, Bluestone Equity Partners, GMF, Apollo Global Management, Blackstone Group's, Levine, Capital Partners, San Diego Wave, NFL Locations: downturns
Despite economic challenges looming large — including prolonged downturns in both the housing and stock market — China’s fascination with luxury watches remains undiminished. Cyril Zingaro/WWGF/KeystoneCertainly at this year’s fair, well-dressed, well-accessorized Chinese customers appeared unfazed by economic uncertainties. After more than 20 years working in the region, he believes China’s economic slowdown is just a temporary phase. “The situation may be slightly (more) challenging for mid-level luxury brands (whose clients’ disposable incomes are potentially more at the whim of market forces). Collectors appreciate the craftsmanship, rarity, and heritage associated with luxury timepieces, which can hold or increase in value over time.
Persons: Matthieu Humair, Cyril Zingaro, Jackson Yee, Jaeger, Zhu Yilong, Wang Yang, Xiao Zhan, David Sadigh, Patek Philippe, Van Cleef, ” Sadigh, Valentin Flauraud, , Ricardo Guadalupe, “ We’ve, Pierre Albouy, Keystone Carson Chan, Richard Mille Asia, Bonhams, ” Chan, Raphael Young, Lange, Söhne, Wilhelm Schmid, Lumen, Chan, Vacheron, Young, Roger Dubuis, Dior, Louis Vuitton, Gucci — Chanel, Hermes, Hermès, Attelé, Chanel, Mademoiselle Chanel, Organizations: Geneva CNN —, Federation of, Swiss Watch Industry, IWC, Digital Luxury, CNN, Keystone, Fondation, , Berkley, Couture Locations: Geneva, China, Hong Kong, Asia, Switzerland, Chopard, Europe, , Asia — China, Guadalupe, Swiss, watchmaking
New York CNN —Big banks kick off earnings season Friday. “Earnings season just became significantly more important,” said JJ Kinahan, chief executive of IG North America, in a Wednesday note. On one hand, lofty rates could help pad banks’ net interest income, since they can charge a higher borrowing rate for loans and mortgages. Inflation has been a bane on Biden’s presidency, with voters consistently giving him low marks for his handling of the economy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said that policymakers want to see more evidence that inflation is headed toward their 2% goal.
Persons: , JJ Kinahan, JPMorgan, Wells, You’ll, Carol Schleif, Wall, Jamie Dimon, , Alicia Wallace, Friday’s, Joe Biden, ” Biden, Bryan Mena, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, IG North America, JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock, Citigroup, PNC Financial Services, BMO Family Office, Federal Reserve, Wall, Traders, Bureau of Labor Statistics, , Federal, Fed Locations: New York, Wells Fargo, pare
In Praise of Middle Managers - The New York Times
  + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( David Brooks | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +2 min
Nobody writes poems about middle managers. So how do these managers work their magic? Let me give you a few features of ethical leadership:Knowing that moral formation is part of the job. When I was starting out at “PBS NewsHour” and I said something he thought was smart, his eyes would crinkle with pleasure. When I said something he thought was crass, his mouth would turn down in displeasure.
Persons: I’ve, Tucker Carlson, Ted Lasso, Lasso, fellas, Jim Lehrer Organizations: PBS
Why gold prices are at record highsFrom central banks to Costco customers, it seems everyone is buying gold these days, reports CNN’s John Towfighi. Central banks see gold as a long-term store of value and a safe haven during times of economic and international turmoil. When interest rates fall, gold prices tend to rise, as bullion becomes more appealing than income-paying assets like bonds. The People’s Bank of China bought gold for the 17th straight month in March, adding 160,000 ounces to bring reserves to 72.74 million troy ounces of gold, according to Reuters. The Honest Company posted a strong fourth quarter in March.
Persons: , ” Mark Carney, , GFANZ, Jamie Dimon, ” Dimon, JPMorgan, CNN’s John Towfighi, China —, Read, Jessica Alba, Ramishah Maruf, Alba’s, Chuck Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, European Central Bank, Glasgow Financial Alliance, UN, Bank of England, ECB, MIT, Columbia Business School, Zero Banking Alliance, United Nations, decarbonization, CNN, JPMorgan Chase, State, JPMorgan, Investors, Federal Reserve, China, People’s Bank of China, Reuters, UBS, The Honest, The Honest Company, Honest, Nasdaq Locations: New York, Glasgow, China, India, Turkey
Why gold prices are at record highs
  + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( John Towfighi | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
Central banks see gold as a long-term store of value and a safe haven during times of economic and international turmoil. When interest rates fall, gold prices tend to rise, as bullion becomes more appealing than income-paying assets like bonds. Investors also regard gold as a hedge against inflation, betting bullion will retain its value when prices rise. The People’s Bank of China bought gold for the 17th straight month in March, adding 160,000 ounces to bring reserves to 72.74 million troy ounces of gold, according to Reuters. Higher oil prices are likely to stoke concerns over inflation, boosting gold prices, according to the UBS research note.
Persons: China —, Ulf Lindahl, Lindahl, Morgan, JP Morgan, Janet Yellen’s, Yellen, Mark Zandi, Jerome Powell, Wells, Richard Galanti, It’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Investors, Federal Reserve, China, People’s Bank of China, Reuters, UBS, Research Associates, Moody’s, of Commerce, Costco Locations: New York, China, India, Turkey, Central, Wells Fargo
A handful of indicators suggest a hard landing is on the way, top economist David Rosenberg warned. A famed recession indicator in the job market is flashing levels similar to the last three downturns. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . The Rosenberg Research founder pointed to several warning signs the US could be on the precipice of a downturn, despite the economy looking strong on the surface. In particular, he pointed to the Sahm Rule — a famous recession indicator that flashes when the three-month moving average of the US unemployment rate climbs 50 basis points from a 12-month low.
Persons: David Rosenberg, , Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read preview2008's housing crash might be long over, but Steve Eisman is not done looking for the next big macro trade. The investor — famous for his subprime mortgage bet, as documented in "The Big Short" — is now eyeing infrastructure as biggest winner of today's conditions. "You take all four of those boxes, and you turbocharge them by the fact that the United States has not had an industrial policy in anyone's lifetime," Eisman said. While Eisman believes in AI and infrastructure, he has no faith in crypto's potential, he said.
Persons: , Steve Eisman, Eisman, Neuberger Berman —, they've, Eaton, United States — everybody's Organizations: Service, Business, JPMorgan, Apple Locations: United States
Direct-to-consumer brands – household names like HelloFresh, Peloton, Allbirds, Stitch Fix, Warby Parker and Rent the Runway, which cut out traditional retailers, wholesalers and other middlemen – have been falling. Investors shied away from high-growth stocks and retreated into companies with solid fundamentals and, most importantly, lots of profit. The problem is that none of these direct-to-consumer (DTC) companies have managed to make the transition to profitability themselves. Rent the Runway was down $114 million, and mattress company Purple lost about $121 million. Other companies, like SmileDirectClub, which went public in 2019, and Winc, a wine subscription company that went public in 2021, have declared bankruptcy.
Persons: Allbirds, Warby Parker, don’t, they’ll, , Ben Cogan, they’ve, Cogan, Casper, , it’s, Sesame, Michael Botta, Tesla, Chris Isidore, Elon Organizations: New, New York CNN, Agora, CNN, Hubble, Venture, , Companies, Wonder Group, Durational Capital Management, Costco, Western, Tesla Locations: New York
Trailing stop losses Investors who rode tech's ascent — consider that Nvidia is up more than 80% in 2024 — may be reluctant to part with those positions. However, trailing stop losses may permit them to hold on to those stocks and still protect against sharp declines. Put options give investors the right to sell a stock at a specified — or "strike" — price before an expiration date. However, you can also pair this strategy with a covered call, which may boost your income and offset losses. "Covered call options can be employed to generate income on existing stock holdings while potentially limiting upside potential," Lawrence said.
Persons: Ashton Lawrence, Lawrence, Cash Organizations: Mariner Wealth Advisors, Nvidia, Retail, Investors Locations: Greenville , South Carolina
Stellar stock-market returns have boosted Americans' retirement account balances. The number of 401(k) millionaires is up and average account balances are the highest in two years. Markets are volatileInvesting experts also caution against the belief that the market will keep producing strong returns year after year. Markets are up big (+20%) or negative nearly two-thirds of the time whereas 'average' returns (0-20%) only happen about a third of the time," Anderson wrote. Future uncertainty often brings a "sequence of returns risk" that's overlooked by early retirees.
Persons: , Brian Spinelli, Halbert Hargrove, Aaron Anderson, Spinelli, Stocks, Anderson, boomers Organizations: Service, Fidelity, Fisher Investments
According to Bank of America, valuation levels explain 80% of the market's return over a 10-year period. Bank of AmericaThere are many ways to measure valuation levels in the overall market. Hussman says it's the most accurate indicator of future market returns that he's found. AdvertisementThe Conference BoardThird, the number of US states with a rising unemployment rate is spiking, meaning that the overall unemployment rate should see further upside. BullAndBearProfits.comThe US unemployment rate is already on a slight uptrend, having climbed from 3.4% in April 2023 to 3.9% as of February.
Persons: , Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, John Hussman's, he's, Warren Buffett, Wolfenbarger, Stocks, Woflenbarger, Cam Harvey, Claudia Sahm, Louis Fed, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, David Rosenberg, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, America's Savita Subramanian, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Business, JPMorgan, National Federation of Independent Business, Board, Treasury, Bank, America's
At the simplest level, labor productivity is how much output (widgets, meals, spreadsheet computation) one person can complete in an hour. Employers were running around with fishnets trying to find people, and workers used their leverage. By contrast, the late 1990s were a period of higher productivity growth and underestimated growth, starting the year at 2% but ending closer to 4%. But it's probably too soon to be thinking about these factors as the main driver of recent productivity growth. The investment implications of this are clear: Stronger productivity growth implies a higher speed limit for the economy.
Persons: , it's, we'll Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of San, Labor, P Global, Manufacturing, Capital, Employers, downturns, Professional Locations: Silicon Valley, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
The simmering topic has been up for debate, in part because prices for NFL teams have risen so high that they threaten to restrict who can be a lead owner. This raises the question: Are investments in sports teams actually a good investment, especially for risk-averse investors like pensions and endowments? According to new research published in Investments & Wealth Publications in November, the answer is a resounding yes. For the article, he teamed up with his father, Arun Muralidhar, the chairman and founder of Mcube Investment Technologies, which develops decision-support products for institutional investment managers. "They themselves are investing globally to make sure that their brand is increasing, and they found great success with that."
Persons: , Sid Muralidhar, Muralidhar, Risktyle, Arun Muralidhar, Sachin Muralidhar, Sachin, Arun, Sid Muralidhar Sid Muralidhar, homed, it's Organizations: Service, NFL, Dallas Cowboys, Forbes, Business, Investments, Wealth, NHL, Citigroup, Mcube Investment Technologies, The University of Virginia, National Hockey League, NBA, MLB, BI
Recessions Actually Make People Live Longer
  + stars: | 2024-03-19 | by ( Aki Ito | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +6 min
Recessions, it would seem, help us stay fitter, and live longer. The new paper, along with other research into recessions, provides an important reminder that economic growth isn't — and shouldn't be — the only measure of our collective well-being. If recessions save lives, that comes with a corollary: Boom times cost lives. Sure, economic growth provides jobs. If the new research tells us anything, it's that we still have a long way to go in striking a healthy balance between economic growth and social welfare.
Persons: grads, Amy Finkelstein, didn't, that's, Aki Ito Organizations: Business Locations: Japan, San Francisco
The odds of a recession are "very high" in the US, according to Joe LaVorgna. AdvertisementThe odds of the economy tipping into a recession are "very high," as the US is poised to see a wave of unemployment and a major drop in consumer spending. Advertisement"All three of those metrics are still flashing recession," LaVorgna said. AdvertisementStrong consumer spending on goods also looks poised to drop, which could end up dragging economic growth lower, LaVorgna said. "It makes me think recession risk … still has a very high probability," he added.
Persons: Joe LaVorgna, LaVorgna, Organizations: Service, Nikko Securities, Rosenberg Research, Treasury, Investor Locations: Nikko
Investors can still find names with plenty of upside potential, even as stocks leap to fresh highs, according to Bank of America. They include CrowdStrike, Emerson Electric, Progressive, Rollins and O'Reilly Automotive. Rollins "This stock is the bees knees and still a Buy," analyst Jason Haas said of the pest control provider. Progressive PGR may arguably be the least volatile stocks in the S & P 500 that can deliver outsized stock performance. … We see limited risk to Rollins' growth trajectory-from a soft housing market, recession, competition, or weather-and therefore believe the stock deserves a premium multiple."
Persons: Rollins, Andrew Obin, Emerson, Obin, it's, Jason Haas, Haas, Joshua Shanker, Shanker, O'Reilly, … Emerson, Organizations: Bank of America, CNBC, CrowdStrike, Emerson Electric, Progressive, O'Reilly Automotive, Emerson, National Instruments, ORLY Locations: Bank, Pest, downturns, ORLY
Read previewFund manager Randy Gwirtzman may be hungry for fast-growing stocks, but he's no gambler. Gwirtzman carefully handpicks his stocks and then is patient with them, even if they're on the market's bad side. How to maximize returns while limiting riskWhen searching for stocks, Gwirtzman keeps his strategy simple. AdvertisementInstead of straying away from riskier stocks, Gwirtzman and his co-manager take steps to mitigate risk. Another way Gwirtzman manages risk is by strategically selling when an investment hits a certain price target or valuation threshold.
Persons: , Randy Gwirtzman, Gwirtzman, downturns, Laird Bieger Organizations: Service, Business, Nvidia, Discovery Fund, Baron Discovery Fund Locations: riskier
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